The billionaire Ray Dalio — the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund — told Bloomberg he sees a 25% chance of recession in 2019 and through 2020.
He cited the effectiveness of central-bank policies, the wealth gap, the 2020 US elections, and the economic emergence of China as key factors in deciding the intensity of the next economic downturn.
The Bridgewater founder also warned the Fed should slowly cut rates by small increments.
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Ray Dalio breaks down why he sees a 25% chance of recession through 2020
-
Stocks surge on US-China trade progress and healthy jobs data
Stocks soared on Thursday after the US and China agreed to meet for another round of trade negotiations in October, granting investors some hope that the countries will strike a deal.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin during a phone call on Thursday morning that he come would to Washington in early October to continue trade talks.
Major US indexes rose higher after data from the ADP Research Institute showed US -
See inside the $37 million NYC penthouse Uber founder Travis Kalanick just purchased, complete with a private rooftop pool and automated parking garage (UBER)
Uber founder and board member Travis Kalanick has purchased a $36.5 million penthouse in New York City, according to property records seen by the New York Times.
The condo, which features a private pool and rooftop terrace, is in a Renzo Piano-designed building in SoHo, in Manhattan.
Take a look at the 6,700-square-foot, four-bed, four-and-a-half-bath residence, which was the most expensive sale in New York City in August.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.Some of Travis K -
Trump thinks more fuel-efficient cars would be more expensive and less good — here's why he's wrong (F, GM, FCAU)
President Trump has demonstrated a reliable ignorance of the US auto industry.
His latest dustup with California over fuel-economy and emissions standards is the most recent example.
Auto consumers and automakers both want more fuel-efficient cars — and Detroit is horrified at the prospect of having to build vehicles for California and the rest of the US on different standards.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.The US auto industry has been staring down a nightmare scenari -
A hedge fund reportedly hemorrhaged $1 billion in August because it bet on Argentina before the country's markets crashed
Autonomy Capital, a hedge fund that placed bullish bets on Argentina last year, lost roughly $1 billion in August when the country's market crashed following an election upset, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Argentina is now on the brink of a financial crisis and may be unable to repay its debts.On Sunday, the country imposed capital controls to keep its currency, the Argentine peso, from falling further.
The founder of Autonomy Capital reportedly still believes that Ar -
This is why Apple, one of the world's most cash-rich companies, just sold $7 billion of debt
Apple issued $7 billion in corporate bonds on Wednesday — its first debt sale since 2017 — even though it has more $200 billion of cash on hand.
The cost of borrowing is low right now, and several companies are taking advantage of the cheap money.
Apple was just the latest big corporation to tap debt markets this week, following in the footsteps of Disney, Capital One, and Caterpillar.
US corporations sold more than $27 billion of investment-grade bonds on Tuesday alone.
Read more on -
A top Apple executive reveals the company thinks crypto has 'interesting long-term potential' (AAPL)
Vice president of Apple Pay Jennifer Bailey told CNN Business during a private event in San Francisco that Apple is "watching cryptocurrency," adding the company thinks "it has interesting long-term potential."
The comments follow Apple's latest push into consumer finance products, with its Apple Card credit card releasing in August in collaboration with Goldman Sachs and Mastercard.
Apple's potential move into digital coins would serve as "a major shot in the arm for crypto," Wedbush Securities -
Hurricane Dorian's path reminds experts of another devastating storm — and they say it could cost insurers $4.5 billion
Hurricane Dorian's trajectory has shifted away from Florida and now bears a close resemblance to Hurricane Matthew, a category five storm that devastated Haiti and the southeastern United States in 2016.
According to UBS, if Dorian continues following Matthew's path, it could cost insurers $4.5 billion.
UBS predicted earlier this week the storm could cost insurance companies more than $25 billion, but it's since reduced its forecast.
Dorian has already surged through the Bahamas leaving at -
The Fed's next rate decision is likely to leave Trump sorely disappointed
President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve since a closely watched recession warning flashed last month.
But the independent central bank is poised to leave the White House disappointed when it meets this month.At a range of between 2% and 2.25%, interest rates are already low by historical standards and with long-term inflation expectations factored in.
Visit the Markets Insider homepage for more stories.
President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal R -
The research chief at the world's largest hedge fund breaks down 3 things that will make the next financial crisis unique — and how political tensions could be at its core
There are unique uncertainties around how the next downturn will unfold and how policymakers can combat it, according to Karen Karniol-Tambour, the head of investment research at Bridgewater Associates, which is the world's largest hedge fund.
In an interview with Bridgewater co-CEO David McCormick, she identified at least three unknowns that investors must grapple with even as recession concerns rise.
She also explained why the impact of political tensions has become the mos -
The president of a $4.7 billion firm told us where he's investing and why he's staying calm in a time of 'escalating panic' in markets
Tom Stringfellow, the president and chief investment officer for $4.7 billion Frost Investment Advisors, says he's been hearing "panic" from investors lately but remains optimistic about the US economy and the stock market.
Stringfellow told us why he thinks the market is poised for more gains, and the trends that are giving more strength to parts of the tech sector and the far less-loved financial sector.
He also explained how he's keeping portfolios safe during a turbulent time, and why invest -
Debenhams brings in restructuring expert as marketing boss departs
Debenhams has brought in Erin Brookes as chief restructuring officer and interim director of marketing after Richard Cristofoli was forced out after eight years in the retailer’s top marketing job.
CEO Stefaan Vansteenkiste revealed the changes in a letter to staff as part of a move to “slim down and realign” the functions of the senior team. Two other senior executives – stores, operations and food managing director Mark Ashman and Sally Hyndman, transformation and peopl -
Goldman Sachs unveils 2 simple IPO-investment strategies that have crushed the market over the past 25 years
David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, identifies two IPO strategies that have outperformed the market by 60 and 280 basis-points, respectively, since 1995.
At the center of these strategies are equal-sized investments and the practice of cutting losers as soon as possible.
Click here for more BI Prime stories.When a company first trades on a public exchange, the majority of investors fall into two distinct categories: staunch believers and non-believers.
They either thin -
Global stocks are jumping after China says trade talks with the US will resume in October
Stocks are rallying on Thursday after both China and the US said that trade talks would resume in October.
The talks are later than initially planned, but traders will still be breathing a sigh of relief after last weekend's hikes in tariffs, which sent markets plunging.
Elsewhere, the pound held steady after a huge round of debates over Brexit on Wednesday evening that might lead to a possible election in the UK.
View Markets Insider's homepage for more stories.
Stocks are ris -
The history of WeWork — from its first office in a SoHo building to a global company preparing for a much-hyped IPO
WeWork parent company, The We Company, publicly filed its IPO paperwork in August.The We Company is now considering a valuation of around $20 billion for its IPO — roughly half of the company's $47 billion valuation from its last private round of funding — according to reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg on Thursday.
The company could also delay its IPO to 2020, according to The Wall Street Journal.
WeWork started as one office space in the SoHo neighborhood of New Yo -
UBS is reportedly preparing to overhaul its investment arm — and it could mean hundreds of job cuts
UBS is preparing to revamp its investment bank in a bid to revitalize the underperforming business, according to the Financial Times.
The Swiss lender's sweeping overhaul will center on combining divisions and slashing costs to boost profits, raising the prospect of hundreds of job cuts, the FT said.
UBS will merge its equities division with the smaller foreign exchange, rates, and credit trading operations, the FT reported.
It will also rebrand and restructure its corporate client solutio -
Trump ditched tariffs on Mexican tomatoes — and it may have prevented an onrush of undocumented immigrants
Donald Trump's decision to ditch provisional tariffs on Mexican tomatoes may have prevented an onrush of undocumented immigrants to the US, according to Bloomberg.
Hiking the cost of importing Mexican tomatoes would have hit demand, potentially driving farmworkers to cross the US border in search of employment.
"If we didn't have sales to the US, then people would need to migrate to the US to look for other options, because they don't have them here," Salvador García, a Mexican tomato bos -
Goldman Sachs is seeing a mass exodus from its highest ranks as CEO David Solomon puts his stamp on the firm
Goldman Sachs is trimming its partner ranks, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.
At least a dozen partners are negotiating departures from the firm, adding to turnover in the ranks, the WSJ reported.
Below is a list of seven partners that have already left or may soon be leaving.
Read more on Markets Insider.
David Solomon, the new CEO of Goldman Sachs, thinks the firm has grown bloated and its top ranks need to be reduced to retain exclusivity, the Wall Street Journal repo -
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is on the hunt for cheap, underappreciated stocks. Here are 8 Japanese companies he's invested in right now.
The investor Michael Burry rose to fame by shorting mortgage securities ahead of the 2008 housing meltdown.His wager was heavily featured in Michael Lewis' bestselling book "The Big Short," and Christian Bale portrayed Burry in the 2015 film adaptation.Burry currently has several active investments in small- and medium-sized Japanese companies, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
The Japanese stocks he chose have "significant cash or stock holdings" he wants to see used for share buybacks or acquisiti -
Jacked-up prices for laptops and smartwatches, disrupted supply chains — how 6 top tech companies and their consumers are impacted by Trump's latest tariffs on China
President Donald Trump slapped another round of tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods on September 1, escalating the ongoing trade battle with a tax that will affect nearly every item China ships to the United States.
The 15% tax covers a wider range of consumer products than previous rounds of tariffs, includes flat panel TV sets, cotton sweaters, printers, smart watches, smart speakers, and Bluetooth headphones, Reuters reported.
Apple is a major company that's been particularly hit hard wi -
Why Marketing Week’s Mini MBA is branching into brand management
I remember that feeling in my stomach as my wife’s pregnancy gradually began to reach its inevitable conclusion. We’d been married for a decade and built a life based on me travelling overseas two weeks a month for consulting work. It was a crazy existence but one with significant financial rewards attached to it.
With my daughter only a few weeks from her big existential debut, I was sweating the numbers. A new life spent mostly at home would mean a drastic cut in an income which, u -
Marketing Week Explores: The customer insight gap and gender stereotypes
The Marketing Week Explores podcast has had a makeover. Now, in addition to our deep dive into the key marketing topics of the month, we will also be discussing some of the biggest marketing headlines.
In this edition, which is hosted by reporter Molly Fleming, senior writer Charlotte Rogers explores why marketers are failing to understand what consumers really want, and what they can do to close the customer insight gap.
Senior reporter Ellen Hammett then joins the discussion, asking whether t -
Recommended reading: Location-based ad fraud and career breaks
Radical Simplicity
By Ken Allen
If you’re looking to succeed in any business, you should probably take a deep dive into Ken Allen’s business memoir, Radical Simplicity. Allen, the former CEO of deliver company DHL, shares his personal story of his journey to the top, and the strategies and skills that helped him get there.
His book focuses on offering practical advice while revealing a collection of simple lessons individuals need to learn in order to succeed at both work and in lif -
Why Timberland is planting 50 million trees
The cries for brands to do more to address the climate crisis are mounting, and it appears Timberland is listening.
The outdoor wear brand, which specialises in footwear, is committing to planting 50 million trees (enough to circle the earth 11 times) by 2025 in a bid to play an essential role in creating a sustainable future.
However, according to Timberland’s senior marketing director for EMEA, Giorgio D’Aprile, this project is about more than just planting trees.
Speaking to Marke -
3 questions I wish I’d asked as a junior marketer: Coca-Cola’s Walter Susini
It’s not often you meet someone who can look back on their career with very few regrets. Someone who believes “it all turned out good” with hardly a fumble, let alone a failure. But Walter Susini, Coca-Cola’s Western Europe marketing director, is one of those people.
Susini has worked on “nearly every side” of marketing, at big brands such as Coca-Cola and Unilever, as well as agency side at JWT and running his own consultancy business. “I like to go fro -
The Washington Post credits product alongside content
via warc.comFor the first time the US Capital’s paper of record will include its vice president of product on the masthead, reflecting the essential role that engineers play in building a successful publisher and the Post’s ability to attract them. -
The importance of hemispheric balance in advertising
via warc.comMany of the problems that currently beset advertising – including short-termism and the death of the creative multiplier – can be traced to an “attentional shift” that is reflected in the different ways in which the left and... -
Sephora uses experiences to build loyalty
via warc.comSephora, the beauty retailer, is putting experiences at the heart of its customer loyalty program, in recognition of the fact this approach can foster deep bonds with consumers. -
Payments revolution: Amazon tests biometric payments
via warc.comAmazon, the US retail giant and the owner of Whole Foods is reportedly testing a new payment technology based on users’ hands. -
India prepares for tough festive retail season
via warc.comRegional language initiatives and margin adjustments are among the tactics being deployed by brands and retail channels in India as they gear up for what is expected to be a tough festive season. -
Google accused of secret data-sharing
via warc.comGoogle is using secret web pages that feed personal user data to advertisers in breach of GDPR, new evidence presented to the Irish data regulator suggests. -
BMW Asia taps e-commerce platform for sales
via warc.comBMW, the luxury carmaker, is launching a new model in Singapore via a branded store on the Lazada e-commerce platform in what is claimed as a first for an auto brand.
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