Modelled loss simulations from RMS show a significant fall in
expected industry losses from Hurricane Matthew, with the mean loss
guidance now as low as $6.0bn, The Insurance
Insider can reveal.
Confidential client numbers produced by RMS and passed to this
publication by sources suggest that the probability of US wind-only
losses hitting $20bn was down from a projection of 41.9 percent
yesterday to just 9.4 percent.
Meanwhile, the probability of a $10bn loss event in
the US has fallen...
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-
RMS modelled Matthew loss down to $6bn
-
Industry loss expectations ease to $5bn-$15bn
Fears of a $20bn+ loss are receding after Hurricane Matthew
skirted the Floridian coast, rather than making landfall as a
Category 3 storm.
Market sources stressed that huge uncertainty remains around the
loss quantum, with the potential for a landfall in the Carolinas
causing nervousness.
However, most now suspect that the industry will escape with
losses in the $10bn to $15bn range, while some suggested it could
come down towards $5bn.
Yesterday evening there was concern that losses could stee -
Heritage estimates $500mn Matthew impact
Floridian insurer Heritage said yesterday that it could take about
$500mn of losses from Hurricane Matthew, ahead of the storm's
downgrade to a category 3 event.
CEO Bruce Lucas first made the $500mn loss projection during
comments on CNBC yesterday, although since then the storm's
forecast track has taken a somewhat more favourable turn for
Florida.
"As of this morning [7 October], Hurricane Matthew has
remained east of the Florida coast. As a result, projected losses
could be substantially low -
Matthew could cause a 95% fall in reinsurer profit: S&P
Reinsurers affected by Hurricane Matthew could see pre-tax
profits fall by around 95 percent on average if the storm hits as a
1-in-50-year event, according to Standard & Poor's
(S&P).
In a statement released today, the rating agency said the
forecasted pre-tax profits of the 21 rated reinsurers it analysed
were expected to cover the losses from Matthew.
However, if the storm amounts to a 1-in-50-year event, 24
percent of rated reinsurers would likely suffer a net operating
loss for... -
Ark launches $60mn contingency consortium
Ark's Syndicate 3902 contingency team has launched a consortium
to write large event cancellation risks with capacity of up to
$60mn for any one risk.
The consortium's target business is major global sports,
cultural and business events with sums insured over $25mn. It is
hoped the launch will attract new risks to Lloyd's from all
over the world.
Ark will act as leader on the consortium, with ANV, Argo,
Barbican and Hamilton also providing support.
The venture has been given... -
Floridian stocks recover as Matthew fears wane
Florida property insurers' stocks have bounced back in early
trading this morning, as investor fears about the impact of
Hurricane Matthew subsided.
Today, Universal achieved the biggest uptick, with its stock
rising by 17.22 percent to $22.87.
HCI Group's stock had increased by 14.3 percent to $29.07 as
of 10:15 EDT, while Heritage Insurance Holdings, Federated National
and United Insurance Holdings' shares had all increased by more
than 8 percent.
The movement is a stark turnaround from yester -
Brokers urged to make changes to grow
It is absolutely key to understand your numbers, to understand where every pound and premium is placed to ensure growth. -
CII launches New Generation Group for 2017
The talent programme includes a specialist broking group. -
Insurers struggling to adapt to digital channels, leaving millennials in the dark
UK insurers are struggling to adapt to digital channels of customer engagement, research has revealed. -
Hurricane Matthew hits Florida as Category 1 storm
Hurricane Matthew has struck a glancing blow to the Florida
coast as a Category 1 storm, with its Category 2 and 3 portions
remaining offshore, according to data from Tropical Storm Risk.
As of 7.00am Eastern time (11.00am GMT) the hurricane had
reached the counties of Brevard, Indian River and St Lucie.
The storm's path is also thought to be tracking further east
than previously predicted, meaning the Category 3 part of the
hurricane is mainly offshore (see illustrations).
Further... -
Endurance and Sompo Canopius to merge post-deal
Sompo Canopius will be fully merged with Endurance following parent
company Sompo's acquisition of the Bermudian firm, according to
Sompo Holdings CEO Kengo Sakurada.
At a press conference today, the executive explained Endurance,
Sompo Canopius and Sompo's other international business would
be merged to come under one holding company.
Within that holding company there will be three operating
companies - one for Lloyd's, one for reinsurance and one for US
business.
Sakurada said his firm was pur -
Hurricane Matthew likely to be a “significant event” as it makes landfall
Hurricane Matthew is expected to be a “significant event” as it continues to progress through the Bahamas, according to catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide. -
Hurricane Matthew likely to be a significant claims event as death toll rises
Hurricane Matthew is expected to be a significant claims event as it continues to progress through the Bahamas, following the news of hundreds of deaths in Haiti. -
Week in Post: Socials, swingers, and share sales
This week editorial staff at Post and sister title Insurance Age held their annual team social. After a popular vote, we took the unusual step of visiting a swingers club. -
This week: Socials, swingers, and share sales
This week editorial staff at Post and sister title Insurance Age held their annual team social. After a popular vote, we took the unusual step of visiting a swingers club. -
Japanese Sompo aims to become a 'truly global insurer'
Sompo's president and CEO, Kengo Sakurada has said the Japanese insurer aims to build a business which competes on a global scale with its purchase of Endurance. -
Hurricane Matthew to weaken to Category 3: NHC
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has predicted that
Hurricane Matthew will weaken to a Category 3 storm as it nears the
Floridian coast over the course of today.
As of 02:00 EDT, the organisation said the storm was tracking
northwest towards the east coast of Florida, with it likely to move
over or near the region tonight, before reaching or coming close to
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.
Matthew is currently moving at 14 mph... -
Haiti to receive $20mn CCRIF payout
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) is
preparing to pay out just over $20mn to the government of Haiti
following the impact of Hurricane Matthew.
This is the largest payment the CCRIF has made to date. Since
its inception in 2007, the fund has made a total of 15 payouts to
10 member governments totalling $38.8mn, all within 14 days of the
relevant event.
The latest payment would bring the total to approximately
$58.8mn.
It also marks Haiti's second... -
A&A Group moves into profit for 2015
Group CEO Tony Allen hails “greatly improved” results for the broker and its parent company. -
Quizzical questions: 7 October 2016
Test your knowledge of the week's news with our topical news quiz. -
Opinion: Whiplash reform – more at stake than a potential £50
Andrew Twambley, spokesperson for Access to Justice which is campaigning against the government’s reforms to personal injury, joins the debate. -
Everest Re and RenRe most exposed to Hurricane Matthew
Everest Re and RenaissanceRe are the most exposed carriers to
Hurricane Matthew in the Florida reinsurance market, according to
equities analysts at Macquarie.
Matthew weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm as it moved
closer to Florida this morning.
Sister publication Trading Risk
obtained very provisional data provided by RMS to its clients
yesterday, based on a single projected track from a 5 October
forecast, which indicated that there was a 40 percent chance of
Matthew resulting in an indu -
AIG PI aggregation case heads to Supreme Court
A landmark professional indemnity (PI) appeal involving AIG will
be heard in the UK Supreme Court on 10 October.
The case will be the first time the Supreme Court has been asked
to interpret the wording of the aggregation clause in the Minimum
Terms of Cover (MTC) for PI insurance policies, which are mandatory
for all regulated law firms under Solicitors Regulation Authority
rules.
The case centres around a Commercial Court decision in August
last year, which held that AIG... -
Adrian Saunders spells out his top priorities for Ecclesiastical
Ecclesiastical's commercial director on his role, profitability, growth and restructuring at the insurer -
Video: A broking minute with Tony Knight of Knightsure
Tony tackles a broking minute revealing his preferred superpower, his favourite sandwich filling and much more. -
David Hertzell, Aviva, Allianz, Axa and QBE among 2016 Insurance Fraud Awards winners
David Hertzell was crowned winner of the achievement award at last night’s Insurance Fraud Awards. -
Broker Apprentice 2016: Szymon Wloch
The cameras start rolling on Monday for the next series of Broker Apprentice. -
Government urged to make telematics mandatory for youngsters
Telematics could save lives -
Wholesale channel not more costly than retail: Conning
In a P&C insurance sector that is seeing significant structural
change, there has been much discussion about removing links in the
distribution chain and the potential for disintermediation.
But in a report commissioned by Napslo, Conning's research
arm has concluded that wholesale distribution does not increase the
cost of the transaction to the insured.
The study found that the total non-loss cost ratio for a
composite of wholesale companies with $19bn in premium was 1
percentage point low -
Auto the exception in E&S buyer's market: Amwins
Both the property and casualty sectors of the E&S sector remain
soft, with a buyer's market everywhere except commercial auto,
according to wholesale broker Amwins.
In its latest state of the market publication, the firm noted
that amid ample capacity and favourable underwriting results,
carriers are scrapping for market share, competing not just on
price, but coverage too.
"In property, the combination of new markets, strong
underwriting appetites from both new and existing carriers, and
re -
Reinsurance support means Florida sell-off 'overdone': KBW
Florida property insurers could represent a bargain after investors
beat down prices based on forecasts for Hurricane Matthew's 140
mph winds to tear up the state's east coast.
"In our view, the sell-off of publicly traded Florida
homeowners insurers' shares is overdone, and we view the
weakness as a buying opportunity," Arash Soleimani, an analyst
at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said in a note to clients late
today.
"We remind investors that the publicly traded Florida
homeowners insurers are h
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